How the precognition test works
The ASPR’s online exercise asks you to choose one of four pictures before the target is generated. It introduces a forced-choice task used to explore the idea of precognition: obtaining information about a future event. The exercise and its running score are an opportunity to learn about the method; a short session cannot establish a psychic ability.
What happens in a trial
- Follow the on-screen preparation instructions and note any impressions you wish to record.
- Review the four pictures and choose the one you think will become the target.
- After your choice is submitted, the server generates the target independently and compares it with your choice.
- The result is revealed, and your running number of trials, hits and hit rate is updated.
How the target is chosen
Targets are selected by a cryptographically secure pseudo-random number generator, seeded from the server operating system’s entropy pool. Each of the four pictures has the same probability of being selected. It is not a physical noise source or a pre-existing table of random numbers, and no person selects the target. The target does not exist while you are making your choice.
Why the chance baseline is 25%
One target among four equally likely pictures gives a one-in-four chance of a hit on any trial. That is an average expectation, not a promise that every four guesses will contain one hit. Short runs can fall well above or below 25% by chance.
The displayed hit rate is a descriptive score. It is not a diagnosis, a probability that ESP exists, or by itself a statistical demonstration of an effect. Choosing when to stop, repeating sessions until a high score appears, and comparing many possible outcomes can all make an apparently striking result easier to obtain by chance.
From an exercise to a research study
A stronger investigation specifies the number of trials and the analysis before data collection, records all outcomes, checks the randomization and handling of results, and tests whether findings replicate independently. An online exercise cannot control a participant’s surroundings or supply those safeguards on its own.
The Ganzfeld procedure is a different approach: participants describe impressions freely and then compare them with potential targets. Nancy Sondow’s Ganzfeld lecture discusses the distinction between forced-choice and free-response tasks.
For historical discussion of response methods, read Rhea A. White’s 1964 comparison of old and new methods. The privacy policy describes how this site handles session and account information.